Commentary

The industrial sector is likely to be less affected than office and retail by the effects of Covid-19. Hawkes Bay industry largely supports the rural sector, which should remain robust (although currently challenged by short term drought and freezing works capacity issues). The governments fiscally expansive 2020 budget sees significant expenditure on housing and transport, helping to offset contractions in consumer demand. Further the industrial sector also comes off a strong base, with a shortage of supply and strong value growth, on the back of both strong rental growth and reduced capitalisation rates. We anticipate industrial rental growth to cease, and rents may soften slightly, but overall, we expect the industrial sector to outperform office and retail.